A Weaker Dollar ≠ A Clear Path Ahead
The consensus points to a weaker U.S. dollar against most major currencies over the next 12 months.
Yet the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate increase strengthened the dollar in the near term, and the first forecast revisions published in October point in the same direction.
Major financial institutions agree that the Canadian dollar and the yuan will appreciate against the U.S. dollar. Views on the Swiss franc and sterling are more divided, with no agreement even on direction. In our assessment, this quarter is therefore defined by broad agreement on the overall direction, but much greater uncertainty over the path.
The Mexican peso is the quarter’s main watchpoint. While the consensus anticipates appreciation against the U.S. dollar, several institutions have recently revised their forecasts toward a less robust peso.
Some members of Banco de México’s (Banxico) governing board are also open to cutting the policy rate. These risks are connected: the peso’s expected appreciation depends heavily on a weaker dollar, an assumption that the Fed’s stance is already challenging.
An Expected Dollar Decline Faces an Early Test
In our assessment, the Fed’s September rate increase does not invalidate the expected decline in the U.S. dollar over 12 months, but it could delay it.
This view rests on a specific scenario: the Fed would stop raising its policy rate by the end of 2026, while other central banks would continue tightening. Any additional Fed increases beyond that scenario would therefore prolong dollar strength without necessarily reversing its eventual decline.
By late summer, published forecasts were already pointing to a weaker dollar against the euro, yen and Canadian dollar. During September, several institutions that had previously expected a stronger dollar also shifted toward this scenario.
The first October revisions, released after the Fed’s decision, moved in the opposite direction. Two institutions raised their three-month U.S. dollar forecasts against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, and one also raised its forecast against the euro. Although limited, these changes show that the consensus can still shift. The revisions primarily concern the three-month horizon, however. In our view, they postpone the dollar’s decline rather than call it into question.
For finance teams, the main uncertainty therefore concerns the timing of the expected dollar decline, particularly for payments and receipts over the coming months.
Central Banks Move Out of Step
September’s decisions widened the divergence in monetary policy. The Fed unanimously raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on September 16, to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. Its projections indicate one final increase before the end of 2026, followed by a pause throughout 2027 and cuts beginning in 2028. The minutes released on October 7 also show that a majority of officials consider another increase likely before year-end.
Similarly, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points on September 10, to 2.50%. Euro area inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), was still running at 3.3% in August. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) also raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17–18 meeting, by a vote of seven to two.
Notably, the Fed, ECB and BoJ all raised their policy rates in September. In our assessment, when several central banks tighten simultaneously, what matters most for currencies is how their rate differentials with the Fed evolve. This helps explain the yen’s response: despite the BoJ’s increase, its policy rate remains 250–275 basis points below the Fed’s.
By contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2. The Bank of England (BoE) also held steady on September 17, at 3.75%, although three of its nine committee members voted for an increase. In our view, these pauses leave the Canadian dollar and sterling more sensitive to the widening gap with the Fed.
In Latin America, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) cut its policy rate, the Selic, by 25 basis points to 13.75% on September 16. Banxico held its rate at 6.50% on September 24, while ruling out any automatic alignment with the Fed. Its October 8 minutes show that three of the five board members would consider a cut if disinflation continues. Despite the BCB’s cut, the Selic remains 975–1,000 basis points above the Fed’s policy rate, while Banxico’s rate is 250–275 basis points higher.
Upcoming monetary policy decisions will therefore be critical in assessing whether rate differentials evolve in line with the scenarios underpinning currency forecasts.
Canada Under Tariff Pressure
The consensus anticipates a gradual strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, despite escalating trade tensions between the two countries during the quarter. In July, Washington announced 50% tariffs on Canadian products. After negotiations broke down in August, Ottawa responded in early September with counter-tariffs of 15%–50% on approximately $20 billion of U.S. imports.
Washington then banned imports of Canadian dairy products, motorcycles and alcoholic beverages, effective September 29. Major financial institutions nevertheless forecast Canadian growth of approximately 1.1% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, incorporating an estimated tariff impact of roughly 0.4 percentage points of GDP.
In our view, the consensus outlook is therefore not supported by interest rate differentials, which currently work against the Canadian dollar. Rather, it suggests that the currency’s current exchange rate already reflects much of the tariff shock. All institutions expect the Canadian dollar to be stronger against the U.S. dollar in 12 months than it was on September 30.
Meanwhile, the two-year U.S.–Canada interest rate differential widened during the quarter as the Fed tightened monetary policy. It now stands at nearly 150 basis points, compared with approximately 100 at the beginning of the quarter.
The BoC’s October 28 decision will be the next key checkpoint: holding rates would leave this gap wide, while an increase would narrow it. This exposes a weakness in the scenario: if the BoC pauses again while the Fed raises its policy rate further, the differential would widen to the Canadian dollar’s detriment.
Our takeaway is that forecasts point to a gradual Canadian dollar appreciation rather than an abrupt reversal. A further escalation in tariffs remains the main risk to this outlook.
Latin America: Different Paths
The consensus anticipates appreciation in the Brazilian real, Chilean peso and Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, although the degree of agreement varies by currency. In our assessment, the real remains supported by a high policy rate despite BCB cuts, while the Chilean peso benefits from strong copper prices. These supports nevertheless appear fragile, as they depend in part on market appetite for risk.
The Mexican peso is the most contested case. Although most institutions expect it to strengthen from its September 30 level, several have recently revised their forecasts toward a weaker peso than previously expected. The gap between the lowest and highest forecasts also widens with the forecast horizon.
Two upcoming developments add to the uncertainty. Brazil’s October 4 presidential election produced no first-round winner, with a runoff scheduled for October 25. Meanwhile, some Banxico board members are open to cutting the policy rate, which would narrow the interest rate differential with the United States that currently supports the peso. If Banxico cuts while the Fed raises its rate, both decisions would reduce this advantage.
Major Currency Trends and Their Drivers
U.S. Dollar: Expected to Weaken Over 12 Months, Stronger in the Near Term
Relative to September 30 spot rates, the consensus anticipates a weaker dollar against most major currencies over the next 12 months. It projects EUR/USD at 1.1700 versus 1.1355, USD/JPY at 154.00 versus 157.00, and USD/CAD at 1.3600 versus 1.4183.
There is broad agreement on direction, but less on timing. Against the yen, the consensus even anticipates a slightly stronger dollar at three months, at 158.00, before it begins to decline.
In the near term, however, the dollar has strengthened. During the second half of September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against six major currencies, reached an 18-month high.
At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007, then reached 5.36% on October 7, its highest level since 2002. In our view, these elevated yields increase the appeal of holding U.S. dollar assets, consistent with the currency’s recent strength.
Some institutions also anticipate a stronger dollar against the euro and Swiss franc over the coming months, although this remains a minority view.
Euro and European Currencies: ECB Support for the Euro, Sterling Broadly Stable
The consensus anticipates euro appreciation against the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.1600 in three months and 1.1700 in 12 months, compared with 1.1355 on September 30. In our assessment, the ECB’s deposit rate increase is the main source of support. However, the Fed’s policy rate remains 125–150 basis points above the ECB’s deposit rate.
The expected euro appreciation could therefore be supported by a narrowing of this differential, particularly if the ECB continues raising rates for longer than the Fed.
The euro nevertheless fell approximately 2% against the dollar in September. This decline coincided with dollar strength following the Fed’s decision and renewed tensions in the Middle East, including attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
Sterling, meanwhile, is expected to remain broadly stable against the dollar. The consensus projects GBP/USD at 1.3400 in 12 months, compared with 1.3286 on September 30. In our assessment, political and fiscal uncertainty in the United Kingdom is limiting its advance. The BoE paused even though three committee members favoured an increase, leaving both policy outcomes open.
The Swiss franc is also expected to appreciate against the dollar, with the consensus projecting USD/CHF at 0.7900 in 12 months, versus 0.8347 on September 30. Although its safe-haven role remains well established, institutional forecasts vary widely, with some anticipating a weaker franc at 12 months. In our view, the dollar has also attracted safe-haven demand during recent tensions, making the franc’s usual signal harder to interpret.
Japanese Yen: The BoJ Raises Rates, but the Yen Has Yet to Follow
The consensus anticipates a modest strengthening of the yen that only emerges beyond three months. It projects USD/JPY at 158.00 in three months, then 154.00 in 12 months, compared with 157.00 on September 30.
Although the BoJ’s rate increase supports the case for a stronger yen, the currency weakened in the immediate aftermath. This decline coincided with two members voting against the increase and Governor Ueda’s cautious comments on the pace of further tightening. It also occurred against a backdrop of a still-wide interest rate differential with the United States.
The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions, published on October 1, nevertheless shows that a majority of members favour further increases, without committing to a timetable. The dollar was then trading around ¥157.87. The October 29–30 meeting will be the next key checkpoint.
In our assessment, a narrowing of the interest rate differential with the United States would support the expected yen appreciation. This depends on Fed decisions as much as on those of the BoJ. The least favourable forecasts for the yen put USD/JPY at 160.00 in 12 months, above its September 30 level.
For a company with yen exposure, a monetary policy decision that meets expectations therefore does not guarantee the expected currency response in the near term.
Canadian Dollar: A Gradual Recovery
The consensus anticipates a gradual strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. It projects USD/CAD at 1.3900 in three months and 1.3600 in 12 months, compared with 1.4183 on September 30—a decline of 4.1% in the currency pair.
Among major currencies, only the Swiss franc shows a more pronounced expected appreciation against the U.S. dollar than the Canadian dollar. There is also unanimous agreement on direction: all 12-month forecasts fall between 1.3400 and 1.4000, below the September 30 spot rate.
Among Canadian dollar crosses, GBP/CAD is expected to decline from 1.8844 on September 30 to 1.8200 in 12 months. This primarily reflects expected Canadian dollar strength, as sterling is projected to remain broadly stable against the U.S. dollar. The Mexican peso, meanwhile, is expected to strengthen against the Canadian dollar over three months, with the consensus projecting MXN/CAD at 0.0800. It would then return close to its September 30 level of 0.0782 at 12 months.
This MXN/CAD profile reflects a timing difference between the two currencies. At three months, the consensus anticipates faster appreciation in the peso than in the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, at 3.7% versus 2.0%. At 12 months, their expected appreciation converges at 4.1%, bringing MXN/CAD back close to its current level.
EUR/CAD, meanwhile, is expected to remain stable around 1.6100 across all horizons, as euro appreciation against the U.S. dollar would offset Canadian dollar appreciation.
Chinese Yuan: A Managed Appreciation
The consensus anticipates a gradual appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, with USD/CNY declining from 6.7045 on September 30 to 6.6000 in 12 months. This is also the pair with the closest agreement among institutions: the gap between the lowest and highest forecasts is no more than 3.2% at 12 months.
In September, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% for the 16th consecutive month.
In our assessment, the narrow dispersion of forecasts reflects the PBoC’s management of the yuan more than market certainty. For a company, the risk therefore lies less in ongoing currency movements than in a sudden adjustment by the Chinese authorities.
Latin American Currencies: High Interest Rates, Divergent Forecasts
The consensus anticipates appreciation in the Brazilian real and Chilean peso against the dollar. It projects USD/BRL at 4.9000 in 12 months, compared with 5.2027 on September 30, and USD/CLP at 900.00, compared with 970.46. For both currencies, all institutions expect the dollar to be below its September 30 level in 12 months.
Chilean peso forecasts vary widely at three months, ranging from 870.00 to 980.00, before narrowing to 900.00–920.00 at 12 months. Institutions therefore agree on the peso’s destination, but not on the path.
The unanimous outlook for the real contrasts with the uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff. In our view, this event could trigger temporary deviations without changing the expected 12-month direction.
The consensus also anticipates Mexican peso appreciation, projecting USD/MXN at 17.4500 in three months and 17.3750 in 12 months, compared with 18.1256 on September 30. Yet these are the regional forecasts that have changed the most recently.
Beyond these currencies, one institution anticipates a slight appreciation of the Peruvian sol against the dollar at three and six months. This single forecast should be treated as indicative.
Other Currencies
One institution anticipates an appreciation of the Moroccan dirham against the euro and U.S. dollar over three months, projecting EUR/MAD at 10.7400 and USD/MAD at 9.4100. These single-institution forecasts should also be treated as indicative.
Points of Tension
Mexican Peso: Appreciation Expected, but Revisions Point the Other Way
Two views coexist on the peso. Almost all institutions anticipate appreciation from its September 30 level, with 12-month USD/MXN forecasts ranging from 16.8000 to 17.8900, below the spot rate of 18.1256. Only one institution projects 18.2500, implying a weaker peso; this remains an outlier.
Recent revisions nevertheless point to a less robust peso. In early October, one institution raised its three-month USD/MXN forecast from 17.0000 to 18.0000, while another raised its forecast from 17.2000 to 17.8000. Both levels remain below the September 30 spot rate.
The gap between forecasts also widens with the horizon: from 16.9000–18.0000 at three months to 16.8000–18.2500 at 12 months, a spread of 8.6%. The risks are also asymmetric: the highest forecast is 0.8750 above the consensus, while the lowest is 0.5750 below it. In our assessment, this asymmetry highlights the risk of a weaker-than-expected peso.
Banxico’s policy adds another layer of uncertainty. According to its October 8 minutes, three of five members would consider a policy rate cut if disinflation continues, while the Fed is considering another increase. Banxico’s board also notes that peso stability depends largely on expectations of a weaker dollar.
In our assessment, the peso therefore faces two vulnerabilities. Its appreciation depends on a weaker dollar, which the Fed’s stance is challenging, and on an interest rate differential that Banxico could narrow.
Mexico’s inflation signals also remain mixed. Between mid-July and mid-September, headline inflation rose from 3.10% to 3.42%, while core inflation declined from 3.95% to 3.79%.
Euro: Broad Agreement on Direction, Disagreement on Magnitude
Two views coexist on the extent of euro appreciation. Twelve-month EUR/USD forecasts range from 1.1000 to 1.2100, a spread of 10.0%. The most cautious forecasts put the euro below its September 30 level, while the most optimistic place it well above.
In early October, one institution lowered its three-month EUR/USD forecast from 1.1800 to 1.1200, implying a stronger dollar. In our assessment, this isolated revision does not change the consensus direction, but it shows that the Fed’s decision can still shift the outlook. It also reinforces an imbalance already visible in the 12-month forecasts: the lowest projection is 0.0700 below the 1.1700 consensus, while the highest is only 0.0400 above it. In our view, this asymmetry highlights the risk of a weaker-than-expected euro.
EUR/CAD: Stability Expected, but Risks Are Asymmetric
Although the consensus anticipates a stable EUR/CAD, the risks are not symmetric. At 12 months, the lowest forecast is 6.2% below the September 30 spot rate, while the highest is only 1.2% above it. In our assessment, this asymmetry highlights the risk of a weaker euro against the Canadian dollar.
Swiss Franc: A Safe Haven, but Too Much Dispersion for a Clear View
Two views coexist on the Swiss franc beyond the near term. Twelve-month USD/CHF forecasts range from 0.7700 to 0.8500, a spread of 10.4%—the widest among major currency pairs at this horizon.
This dispersion makes it difficult to say with confidence whether the franc will continue appreciating beyond the near term. Forecasts are also asymmetric: at 12 months, the highest projection is 0.0600 above the 0.7900 consensus, while the lowest is only 0.0200 below it. In our assessment, this asymmetry highlights the risk of a weaker-than-expected franc.
Sterling: No Agreement on Direction
Two views coexist on sterling. Although the consensus projects broad stability against the dollar, the most cautious forecasts put GBP/USD at 1.2700 in 12 months, well below its September 30 level. The most optimistic forecasts, by contrast, project 1.3900.
In our assessment, this gap reflects a substantive disagreement among institutions over sterling. It has persisted even as differences narrowed for other major currencies during the quarter. Unlike the euro or peso, the extreme forecasts are almost equally distant above and below the consensus, indicating uncertainty in both directions.
The UK’s autumn budget, expected on October 28, followed by the BoE’s November 5 decision, will be the next key checkpoints.
What Is Driving These Trends and Tensions?
Fed policy. Upcoming Fed decisions will be a key determinant of the timing of expected currency movements.
Diverging central bank policies. Changes in interest rate differentials with the United States remain an important driver of the expected paths of the euro, yen and Canadian dollar.
Trade tariffs. Escalating tensions between Canada and the United States are weighing on Canadian growth without, at this stage, overturning expectations of Canadian dollar appreciation.
Geopolitical and election risk. Middle East tensions could continue to trigger currency movements, alongside uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff and the November 3 U.S. midterm elections.
Key Takeaways
Currency markets are in a period of transition rather than an established trend. The consensus anticipates a weaker dollar over 12 months, but the Fed’s September 16 rate increase strengthened it in the near term. The first October revisions point in the same direction.
In our assessment, forecast agreement is high on yuan and Canadian dollar appreciation against the U.S. dollar. It is also high on EUR/CAD stability at three and six months.
For the euro, yen and real, institutions agree on the direction against the U.S. dollar, but not on the magnitude, resulting in a moderate degree of agreement. Agreement is low for the Swiss franc and sterling, where dispersion is widest, and for the Mexican peso, where the consensus has shifted the most.
The Mexican peso remains the main watchpoint. While the consensus anticipates appreciation against the U.S. dollar, recent revisions point to a less robust peso, and Banxico is considering a policy rate cut.
Risks are also asymmetric. For the euro, Swiss franc and Mexican peso, the forecast extremes are skewed toward a weaker-than-expected currency against the U.S. dollar. In our view, the most coherent adverse scenario is therefore a dollar that stays stronger for longer, rather than one that declines more quickly.
With several paths still possible, the issue for a company with currency exposure is not simply whether to hedge or wait. It is how to balance the protection required with the flexibility to preserve.
The tolerance established in the budget does not change with market movements. What changes is the company’s position relative to that tolerance. A decision framework grounded in budget and tolerance helps determine when to act and how much to protect.
The D-Risk approach keeps these decision markers up to date as the outlook and exposures evolve.
Currency Pair Snapshot
For each pair, the tables below summarize the gap between the lowest and highest forecasts, the expected exchange rate direction and the main risk to the outlook. Each comment describes the currency on the left relative to the currency on the right—for EUR/USD, the euro against the U.S. dollar. Directions are measured against September 30, 2026 spot rates.
a. Minimum / Maximum by Horizon
| Pair | 3 MONTHS | 6 MONTHS | 12 MONTHS | Summary |
| USD/CAD | 1,3700–1,4300 | 1,3500–1,4500 | 1,3400–1,4000 | Gradual U.S. dollar depreciation against the Canadian dollar; moderate forecast dispersion |
| EUR/USD | 1,1200–1,2000 | 1,1100–1,2000 | 1,1000–1,2100 | Euro appreciation against the U.S. dollar; broad agreement on direction, disagreement on magnitude |
| GBP/USD | 1,3000–1,3700 | 1,2700–1,3800 | 1,2700–1,3900 | Sterling broadly stable against the U.S. dollar, with substantial dispersion around that path |
| USD/JPY | 152,00–160,00 | 152,00–160,00 | 149,00–160,00 | Modest U.S. dollar depreciation against the yen beyond three months |
| USD/CHF | 0,7800–0,8500 | 0,7800–0,8600 | 0,7700–0,8500 | U.S. dollar depreciation against the Swiss franc; widest 12-month forecast dispersion among major pairs |
| USD/CNY | 6,6500–6,7600 | 6,6000–6,7400 | 6,5000–6,7100 | Gradual U.S. dollar depreciation against the yuan; closest agreement among forecasts |
| USD/MXN | 16,9000–18,0000 | 16,8000–18,0000 | 16,8000–18,2500 | U.S. dollar depreciation against the Mexican peso; recent revisions point the other way, with dispersion widening over time |
| USD/BRL | 5,0800–5,2500 | 5,0000–5,1900 | 4,7000–5,0500 | U.S. dollar depreciation against the Brazilian real; unanimous agreement on direction, disagreement on magnitude |
| USD/CLP | 870,00–980,00 | 870,00–960,00 | 900,00–920,00 | U.S. dollar depreciation against the Chilean peso; wide forecast dispersion at three months, narrowing at 12 months |
| USD/PEN | 3,3500 | 3,4000 | n.d. | One institution anticipates slight U.S. dollar depreciation against the Peruvian sol; single-institution forecast |
| EUR/MAD | 10,7400 | n.d. | n.d. | One institution anticipates Moroccan dirham appreciation against the euro; single-institution forecast |
| USD/MAD | 9,4100 | n.d. | n.d. | One institution anticipates Moroccan dirham appreciation against the U.S. dollar; single-institution forecast |
| CAD dollar crosses | ||||
| EUR/CAD | 1,5900–1,6200 | 1,5800–1,6400 | 1,5100–1,6300 | Euro broadly stable against the Canadian dollar; forecast dispersion widens at 12 months |
| GBP/CAD | 1,8400–1,9000 | 1,8000–1,9000 | 1,7400–1,9100 | Gradual sterling depreciation against the Canadian dollar: fewer Canadian dollars would be needed to buy one pound |
| MXN/CAD | 0,0776–0,0816 | 0,0765–0,0815 | 0,0767–0,0800 | Mexican peso appreciation against the Canadian dollar at three months, followed by a return close to its September 30 level at 12 months |
| EUR/MAD | 10,7400 | n.d. | n.d. | One institution anticipates Moroccan dirham appreciation against the euro; single-institution forecast |
b. Directional Bias, Outlook and Key Risk by Pair
| Pair | Bias 12 MONTHS | Outlook | Key risk |
| USD/CAD
|
↓ | Gradual U.S. dollar depreciation against the Canadian dollar; consensus at 1.3600 in 12 months | BoC decision on October 28; escalating Canada–U.S. tariffs |
| EUR/USD | ↑ | Euro appreciation against the U.S. dollar; consensus at 1.1700 in 12 months, with disagreement on magnitude | Another Fed rate increase; revisions toward a stronger dollar since early October |
| GBP/USD | ↔ | Sterling broadly stable against the U.S. dollar at 1.3400 in 12 months; substantial forecast dispersion | UK budget on October 28; BoE decision on November 5 |
| USD/JPY | ↓ | Moderate U.S. dollar depreciation against the yen beyond three months, reaching 154.00 in 12 months | BoJ meeting on October 29–30; interest rate differential with the United States |
| USD/CHF | ↓ | U.S. dollar depreciation against the safe-haven Swiss franc; divergent 12-month forecasts | Middle East tensions; renewed dollar strength |
| EUR/CAD | ↔ | Euro stable against the Canadian dollar around 1.6100 | BoC decision on October 28 and ECB decision on October 29 |
| GBP/CAD | ↓ | Gradual sterling depreciation against the Canadian dollar, reaching 1.8200 in 12 months | UK fiscal risk; Canadian tariff risk |
| USD/CNY | ↓ | Gradual, managed U.S. dollar depreciation against the yuan, reaching 6.6000 in 12 months | PBoC loan prime rate announcement on October 20; trade tensions |
| USD/MXN | ↓ | U.S. dollar depreciation against the Mexican peso, reaching 17.3750 in 12 months; recent revisions point the other way | Possible Banxico policy rate cut; Banxico decision on November 5 |
| USD/BRL | ↓ | U.S. dollar depreciation against the Brazilian real, reaching 4.9000 in 12 months, supported by a high Selic rate | Presidential runoff on October 25; BCB meeting on November 3–4 |
| USD/CLP | ↓ | U.S. dollar depreciation against the Chilean peso, reaching 900.00 in 12 months, consistent with strong copper prices | Copper prices; oil market tensions |
| USD/PEN | ↓ | Slight U.S. dollar depreciation against the Peruvian sol, according to one institution; single-institution forecast | Regional Latin American risk |
| MXN/CAD | ↔ | Stronger Mexican peso against the Canadian dollar at three months, followed by a return close to 0.0782 at 12 months | BoC decision on October 28 and Banxico decision on November 5 |
Bias = Expected exchange rate direction (↑ increase / ↓ decrease / ↔ stable), primarily over 12 months. * USD/PEN: direction based on the three-month forecast, as no 12-month forecast is available